With Week One of NFL Pre-sason behind us, there are important early story lines that have emerged. While there still more questions than answers, several teams made a statement on the field that could drive prices for 2018 NFL tickets. The Colts, Jets, Brown and Ravens all had strong showings in their first game, which means they may look like value picks for the 2018 NFL season once October rolls around.Least Expensive Prices for 2018
Despite making the playoffs for the first time in a decade, Bills tickets are the cheapest this year in the NFL. The Jacksonville Jaguars, who came one win from the Super Bowl, are also one of 14 teams with average prices below $200. That list also includes two other NFL playoff teams from last year, in the Chiefs and the Lions. After strong first preseason games, Jets and Colts fans may have reason for optimism to go along with their low-priced tickets.
Most Expensive Prices for 2018
Despite losing the Super Bowl to the Eagles, the Patriots lead the league in NFL prices for the second season in a row. The Super Bowl Champion Eagles rank third on the list of most expensive average prices for 2018, behind the Broncos. The Seahawks and Steelers round out the 5 most expensive average prices for the 2018 season.
Most Expensive Games for 2018
Not surprisingly, the top-ranked Patriots have six of the most expensive games for the 2018 season. After that, the Seahawks and Broncos are next on the list with two games at Century Link Field and Mile High Stadium in the top 20 most expensive games. While the Cowboys don't have any games at AT&T stadium in the top 20, they visit the Texans, Seahawks and Eagles for three of the most expensive games in 2018.
Cost Per Win For 2018
Using ESPN's projected win data, along with our average prices above, we came up with a measure of cost-per-win for every NFL team. The Chiefs lead the way with lowest cost per-win at $14. According to ESPN, they're projected to have 8.6 wins, which should be enough for a playoff spot. At 6.8-.9 wins, the Bills, Bengals and Colts are one upset from a shot at the post-season, which could make them sleeper value candidates for 2018.
On the other end of the value spectrum are the Patriots, who will cost you $50 per win at Gillette Stadium. With only two more years of Tom Brady, fans are happy to pay up to see him try to close out his career with another championship run. At 10.5 projected wins, that $50 seems a lot more sensible than paying the same for the Broncos or Bears, who are projected under 7 wins.
In the Battle of New York in 2018, Jets ticket are by far the better value, at $25 per win vs. the Giants $45 cost per win.
Biggest Annual Increase and Decrease from 2017
After their first playoff appearance since 2008, Titans fans are excited about Marcus Mariota, Derrick Henry and the prospects for 2018. At an average price of $277, Titans ticket prices are 8th most expensive in the league, after a 66% price increase from 2017. Despite only winning 6 teams and not making the playoffs, Jimmy Garappolo's strong finish has also raised expectations for Niners-nation. With an average price of $240, 49ers ticket prices are still 35% below prices in their first year at Levi's stadium.
The two biggest price decreases for this season are the Falcons, Raiders and Cowboys. Cowboys tickets are down 36%, which is the 4th biggest drop this season. It's also the lowest price for Cowboys tickets since 2011, when the they finished 8-8. For the Raiders, despite the addition of Coach Jon Gruden, prices are down after they failed to make the playoffs last year. This season, every Raiders game has tickets under $100, other than the opener against the Rams, and the Steelers first visit to Oakland since 2013, and their last before the Raiders relocate to Las Vegas.
Overall Size of the Secondary Market
As the below shows, the size of the NFL secondary market has decreased significantly, to $122 million in gross listed volume. That's down fro a peak of $365 million in 2014. That change is consistent with tighter control of the secondary market by teams and a focus on selling directly to fans through the primary market.