With events being canceled or postponed due to the coronavirus daily, we wanted to take a look at the potential impact this will have on the secondary ticket market for the 2020 Major League Baseball season.
The estimates are based on secondary market value x the number of games canceled. Attendance for those games is based on the 2019 season averages for each team. This is not a precise measure, but it's the simplest way to benchmark magnitude of losses, by team and across the entire league.
It was originally announced that Opening Day would be delayed at least two weeks. However, with last week's CDC recommendation that organizers cancel or postpone events with 50 people or more for 8 weeks, that delay will likely be a lot longer. Due to that uncertainty, we've broken out the data to reflect three scenarios: games postponed through April, games postponed through the All-Star break, and a loss of the entire season (we don't expect the latter to occur).
By our estimates, the lost ticket revenue for the MLB is approximately $1 Billion just for March and April. That number jumps to $2.5 Billion if half the season is lost and just under $5.1 Billion if the entire season is canceled. Here's a tracking sheet for value lost for each team in the MLB, NBA, NHL and each round of March Madness.
Below is a look the biggest ticket market losses by team.
Postponed Games Through April
Postponed Games Through the All Star Break
Full Season Canceled
We also wanted to take a look at just the impact of Opening Day games for each team. For that, we took the secondary market average price for Opening Day at 100% capacity:
If you did purchase MLB tickets for the upcoming season and the game is canceled, here is some important refund information:
- If you purchased tickets on TicketIQ.com for an upcoming event that has been canceled, for any reason including the coronavirus, you will receive a full refund of the purchase price.
- If your event has recently been canceled and hasn't received notification of a refund please email email@example.com.
- Refunds are processed and credited within a week or two of the cancelation.
- If an event is postponed for a later date, your tickets are most likely still valid for the event. If you're unable to make a rescheduled date, please contact us and we'll do our best to accommodate. Currently, teams are making the decision on how and if to issue refunds for postponed events, and TicketIQ is following team policy. The situation in evolving by the day, as you can read about in this article from OregonLive.com.
Below is our raw data for a half season:
|Half Season Postponed|
|Team||Average Price||2019 Avg Attendance||Games Postponed||Gross|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||$102||49,066||40||$200,189,280|
|Boston Red Sox||$125||36,107||40||$180,535,000|
|New York Yankees||$109||40,795||40||$177,866,200|
|St. Louis Cardinals||$89||42,968||40||$152,966,080|
|Los Angeles Angels||$62||37,272||40||$92,434,560|
|New York Mets||$65||30,155||40||$78,403,000|
|San Diego Padres||$57||29,585||40||$67,453,800|
|Chicago White Sox||$76||20,622||40||$62,690,880|
|San Francisco Giants||$64||22,120||40||$56,627,200|
|Kansas City Royals||$72||18,267||40||$52,608,960|
|Toronto Blue Jays||$59||21,607||40||$50,992,520|
|Tampa Bay Rays||$56||14,552||40||$32,596,480|
TicketIQ is committed to Transparent Ticketing, and we make much less on 'sold out' tickets compared to other major marketplaces like StubHub and Vivid. That means ticket buyers save from as much as 25% on TicketIQ for sports, music and theater tickets. We're able to do this because we also work with festival directly to help them sell tickets at face price, directly to consumers like you, through Ticketmaster, Frontgate, Eventbrite and others ticketing platforms.